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Analytics Labs — Flagship Module


Evidence Layers

6

Trade → Quarter

Housed Engines

3

SDE · Regime · Contradiction

Regimes Mapped

10

40 sub-states

Metric Pipelines

5×6

SDE tables

Layer 01 — Evidence

Journal & Trade Evidence

Every trade becomes structured truth: branch, session, R outcome, fees, MAE/MFE, adherence flags, and context. CP3’s journal is the single source of evidence for the entire ecosystem — if it isn’t logged, it doesn’t exist.

  • Trade-level capture across branch, pair, session, and setup context
  • R-based accounting so results are comparable across account sizes
  • Fee and swap capture feeding net-of-friction expectancy
  • Adherence flags that make discipline measurable, not anecdotal
  • Manual manual-vs-auto discipline: Date, branch, risk, outcome, hit flags, BE status, fees, MAE/MFE, duration, and notes are entered; Risk $, Outcome $, Fees % of 1R, and Fees % of balance auto-calculate and get verified
  • The manual is blunt: if the Journal is wrong, every rollup becomes wrong — treat it as a controlled trade ledger, not a casual diary
  • Saturday discipline: entries reconciled from paper capture sheets against broker records before weekly review runs

Layer 02 — Aggregation

Weekly Summary Engine

Trade evidence rolls upward into weekly truth: EV by branch, blended expectancy, hit rates, drawdown movement, and gate dwell. Weeks are the heartbeat of MARS — the unit at which posture decisions are made.

  • Branch-level weekly EV with blend weighting
  • Week tagging — GREEN / YELLOW / RED expectancy states
  • Rolling 4W / 6W / 12W windows for trajectory, not snapshots

Layer 03 — Capital Authority

Gate / Brake State

Drawdown from Equity Peak High routes capital into one of seven gates — Growth through System Lock. CP3 tracks the live gate, brake tone, and dwell time. No lower signal can override this layer.

  • Deterministic gate routing from EPH drawdown
  • Brake tones defining posture from full authority to full stop
  • Gate-dwell tracking — how long capital lives in defensive states

Layer 04 — Expectancy

EV Scorecard

The expectancy engine: EV computed at branch, blend, weekly, monthly, rolling, and structural layers. Profit is what happened; the scorecard shows what the machine is worth.

  • Normal, Trend Partial, Trend No-Partial, and Overflow EV
  • Blended EV under live weight profiles
  • Stability and drift reads that separate edge from variance

Layer 05 — Allocation Quality

Branch Risk Engine

Which branch earns the risk budget — and which quietly leaks it? The Branch Risk Engine scores allocation quality so capital flows toward demonstrated edge instead of habit.

  • Per-branch risk consumption vs. contribution
  • Quality context feeding the Risk Deployment Quality diagnostics
  • Attribution that survives blended P&L camouflage

Layer 06 — Compounding

Capital & Compounding Dynamics

Equity path, growth rate, and acceleration — CP3 reads whether compounding is gaining momentum, flattening, or decaying beneath a healthy-looking curve.

  • Equity Peak High tracking and recovery mapping
  • Growth-rate and ACCEL layers across rolling windows
  • Friction accounting — what fees and giveback cost the curve

Engine 07 — Structure

Structural Diagnostic Engine

Six-table pipelines — current value, cumulative truth, rolling condition, stability, drift, z-score — run across EV, DD, RAER, RAPF, and ACCEL. The SDE turns raw metrics into structural meaning and feeds the Interpretation Cockpit’s final readout.

  • Maturity-aware interpretation — no verdicts on immature data
  • Drift and z-score layers that catch decay before P&L does
  • Interpretation Cockpit: classified signals → decision-grade readout
  • Diagnoses EV, DD, RAER, RAPF, and ACCEL across six structural tables using rolling windows, stability, drift, and z-scores
  • Analyzes seven entities — four primitive branches plus three composites — so weakness is localized before it spreads
  • Middle authority by design: it sets review posture, and it can never override Gate/Brake capital protection

Engine 08 — Context

Regime Classification Engine

A monthly diagnostic layer — six gate-behavior metrics scored −2 to +2, composited from −12 to +12, and mapped to ten regimes from Expansion to Critical State, each with a driver tag. Context, not control: the regime describes the month; it never sizes a trade.

  • Ten regimes with four sub-labels each — forty nameable states
  • Gate Pressure, Structural Health, Volatility, Transitions, Persistence, Compression
  • Dashboard-ready output: Main Regime — Driver Tag
  • Ten regime labels from Expansion to Critical State, each with four sub-labels and a call-to-action
  • Six metrics scored −2 to +2 into a −12…+12 composite from monthly gate and brake telemetry
  • Classifies the system's own internal condition — explicitly not a market-regime detector

Engine 09 — Truth Testing

Contradiction Engine

RAER and RAPF must agree for confidence to be justified. When efficiency and profit quality diverge — under-monetization, profit without efficiency — the Contradiction Engine names the state and routes the review.

  • Fixed 5.5% RAPF calibration rail vs. live risk readings
  • Named contradiction states with routing guidance
  • The sharpest special case of signal coherence in MARS
  • Five states: alignment, under-monetization, profit-without-efficiency, dual weakness, and transition
  • Catches the silent divergence where blended EV still looks fine while quality metrics stop confirming each other

From the Operator Manual

The operating rhythm: daily, weekly, monthly.

CP3 is strongest when used in a repeated rhythm — and weakest when trade inputs are incomplete or backfilled carelessly. This is the cadence the manual prescribes.

Daily

  • Enter each closed trade into the Journal: date, week, pair, direction, session, branch, ATR state, risk %, equity, entry/stop/TP, outcome R, hit flags, BE status, plan adherence, emotional tag, fees, MAE, MFE, duration, and notes.
  • Verify auto-calculated fields: Risk $, Outcome $, Fees % of 1R, Fees % of balance.
  • Check Dashboard and Gate_Brake_State after the session — if drawdown or brake conditions deteriorated, respect the system even if the latest trade felt discretionary-valid.

Weekly

  • Confirm every trade for the week is entered with correct closed status.
  • Review Weekly_Summary: hit rates, branch counts, average R, fees, duration, plan adherence.
  • Review EV_Scorecard for branch EV and blended EV — never rely on total P&L alone.
  • Review Gate_Brake_State: weekly drawdown, gate transitions, brake state, compliance rate, pressure, stability.

Monthly

  • Review Monthly and Advanced Monthly Metrics Interpretation: monthly EV, volatility, stability, quota behavior, branch contribution, drawdown damage.
  • Review Capital_Dynamics and Compounding Dynamics: is capital accelerating, stagnating, or deteriorating?
  • Compare Scenario_Profiles: does the active branch-weight profile remain rational, or would another have been structurally superior?

Risk deployment reference

The 7-Tier Pool Budget Panel.

Gate state and risk tier translate into total cycle pool budgets and per-trade risk guidance. Given the current gate, what level of risk is structurally allowed?

Column groupMeaningHow to use it
GateGrowth → Recovery → Buffer → Floor → Deep-Floor → Ground-Floor → System Lock.Start here. Gate is the primary risk state.
T1–T7 pool valuesTotal cycle pool sizes by tier.Higher tiers allow larger pool deployment. Lower gates cap the maximum tier.
PT T1–PT T7Per-trade risk expression tied to each tier.Individual trade risk boundaries.
Gate CapThe maximum tier allowed in that gate.If Gate Cap says T3 max, do not use T6 logic — even if branch EV looks strong.

Scenarios & troubleshooting

When the numbers look wrong — where the manual says to look.

Dashboard green but Gate defensive

Different layers measure different things. Respect Gate/Brake — drill into Gate_Brake_State and drawdown.

EV positive but capital falling

Variance, drawdown, fees, or poor risk efficiency may be overpowering expectancy. Check Capital_Dynamics, Gate_Brake_State, and Branch Risk Engine.

Fee drag unexpectedly high

Commission or swap entered incorrectly, or high-cost overnight exposure. Check Fees $, Fees % of 1R, Fees % of balance.

A scenario profile suddenly looks superior

Recent branch mix may simply have favored it. Check persistence over multiple weeks and months before changing the active profile.

Branch totals don't match expectation

Branch labels inconsistent in the Journal. Exact labels matter — vague labels corrupt every rollup downstream.

Weekly outputs look blank

Journal week numbers missing, formulas not propagated, or no closed trades marked. Check Date / Week / Trade Status first.

Position in the stack

CP3 reports truth. Authority stays with the rails.

CP3 is the evidence and diagnostics core — but gate authority, throttle decisions, and cycle governance flow through the risk systems it feeds.

Inside this module

9 pages go deeper than this one.

CP3 is included — not an upsell.

The flagship ledger ships with every MARS package, alongside all ten supporting modules and the full manuals.