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Risk Systems — Seven-Tier Model

Risk scales in tiers, not in moods.

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How tiers work

Pool values and per-trade expression.

Each tier defines a total cycle pool size (T1–T7 pool values) and its per-trade risk expression (PT T1–PT T7). Higher tiers allow larger pool deployment; lower gates cap the maximum tier. The 7Tier_Pool_Budget_Panel in CP3 is the reference table: given the current gate, what total pool and per-trade risk is structurally allowed?

How MARS uses this

The benchmark models how often each tier should be used given the gate history. MARS compares live tier deployment against that expectation each review cycle, reading over-use of high tiers as aggression drift and under-use as unmonetized authority - both invisible in raw P&L.

0%10%20%30%T1T2T3T4T5T6T7BENCHMARKLIVE

How it benefits you

Aggression creep gets caught while it is still a pattern on a chart rather than an oversized loss. Equally, unnecessary timidity shows up as a measurable gap, so you deploy the edge you have actually earned instead of leaving modeled expectancy on the table.

Live risk-tier usage against benchmark expectation, T1 through T7.

The gate cap

02

The ceiling that conviction cannot raise.

Gate Cap is the maximum tier allowed in each gate state. Growth may allow the full ladder; defensive gates compress it hard. The construction notes in the panel explain why each gate's tier range was built the way it was — auditable, not arbitrary.

  • Tier selection is an output of gate + evidence, never an input from confidence.
  • The Monte Carlo Benchmark models tier usage — live tier behavior is compared against simulated expectations.
  • Aggressively riding high tiers is visible in Risk-Tier Performance Bands, even when returns look good.

Construction logic

03

Why the ladder is shaped the way it is.

Each gate row's tier range carries a construction note explaining its build: Growth rows extend the full ladder because Equity Peak High is intact; Recovery compresses the top tiers first because re-damage during healing is the costliest failure; Floor states collapse toward T1–T2 because the mission has changed from growth to survival.

  • Pool values scale super-linearly up the ladder — T6 is not just 'a bit more than T5', it is a materially different exposure posture.
  • Per-trade expressions (PT T1–T7) keep individual trade risk bounded even when the pool expands.
  • The construction notes make the ladder auditable: every cap has a written reason, not a vibe.

Inside this module

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Connected inside MARS

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