Simulation — Live vs Benchmark
The comparison stack
Is live EV equal to or better than modeled EV? Is live drawdown equal to or better than modeled drawdown? Is live RAPF showing superior profit quality? Is live RAER converting risk as efficiently as assumed? Is live acceleration tracking the modeled growth velocity? And are gate dwell, tier usage, throttle behavior, and open exposure behaving normally?
Classifying deviation
Returns above the model with worse drawdown is probably over-risk, not alpha. Above the model with excessive overrides is governance leakage. Above the model with weak EV is likely variance. Above the model with poor RAER means risk is being wasted. True MARS alpha is benchmark outperformance with controlled drawdown, positive expectancy, efficient conversion, clean profit quality, and sustainable acceleration.
How MARS uses this
Every review plots realized equity against the benchmark envelope generated from the system's own evidence. Position inside the band is classified - normal variance, outperformance, or model deviation - and only classified deviation triggers structural review. Raw P&L is never interpreted naked.
How it benefits you
You stop grading months by feel. A flat quarter inside the band stops causing panic edits, a hot streak at P85 stops justifying size increases, and genuine model breaks get caught by classification instead of by pain.
Live equity drawn inside the simulated envelope. The question is never 'am I up?' - it is 'where inside my own distribution am I running?'
Reference
| Live position vs MC band | Meaning | Operator response |
|---|---|---|
| Above P90 | Exceptional outperformance | Confirm it isn't excess risk or override behavior |
| P50–P90 | At or above centerline | Healthy — document what's working, don't force aggression |
| P25–P50 | Below median, still normal | Monitor; check execution, fees, branch mix, sample size |
| P10–P25 | Weak relative performance | Review branch quality, EV, fee drag, throttle usage |
| P5–P10 | Danger-zone underperformance | Formal diagnostic review; consider reduced aggression |
| Below P5 | Outside normal benchmark behavior | Serious: audit execution, risk usage, gate compliance |
Doctrine
Inside this module
Connected inside MARS
Go deeper
Deep dive — 01
Three live numbers, seven bands, one fixed workflow — the monthly comparison cockpit by the book.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
Variance heals, drift trends, breaks step-change. Misclassify the gap and every response is wrong.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
Four independent instruments must agree before 'the edge changed' is a legal conclusion.
Read the full brief →
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.
