The Expectancy Lab
Don't take our word for it.
Run your numbers.
Inputs — your last 30+ trades
Computed locally in your browser. Nothing is uploaded.
Readout
Expectancy / trade
+0.34R
Breakeven win rate
35.7%
Margin above breakeven
+12.3pp
Projected monthly
+6.9R
A positive number here is the beginning, not the verdict. The system-grade questions come next: is this edge real or variance? Does it survive drawdown? Are you actually executing it? That is what the rail is for →
This panel computes one profile. The AlphaRail Foundry Laboratory is where you drive it — shifting inputs across ranges and watching what the arithmetic does.
Open the Foundry Lab ↗What this panel is not
This is the first mile of the EV surface — four inputs, four readouts. The system asks the questions this page cannot: whether your edge survives 50,000 simulated paths, how sensitive it is to a two-point drop in win rate, what fraction of the available move you actually capture, and how much risk each result authorizes you to deploy next.
The panel tells you whether you have an edge worth governing. The rail is the governing.
An edge, governed, compounds. Ungoverned, it leaks.
The full EV surface — sensitivity, capture, benchmark, authorization — ships in the complete system.