Use Case 02 — Adaptive Risk Scaling
How MARS uses this
Every proposed rule change - stop policy, branch weights, fee model - is cloned into a scenario profile and resampled against the same evidence. The grid renders the trade-offs, and only profiles whose edge survives without deepening the P10 tail earn candidate status for live promotion.
How it benefits you
System changes stop being vibes-based. The tempting tweak that costs 0.07R of expectancy for a modest drawdown saving gets rejected by arithmetic before it silently taxes six months of trading - and promising candidates carry their evidence with them into review.
BASELINE
LIVEcurrent governing profile
TIGHTER STOPS
REJECTEDEV cost exceeds drawdown saving
TNP WEIGHT +10
SANDBOXedge up, adverse tail deepens
FEE MODEL B
CANDIDATEfriction saving survives resampling
Four scenario profiles judged side by side: expectancy, adverse-tail cost, and a verdict. Changes graduate through this grid or not at all.
The key idea
The mechanism
Deployment expands in Growth and compresses through Recovery, Buffer, and Floor automatically. Confidence never enters the equation — Equity Peak High drawdown routes the gate, the gate caps the tier, and the tier sets the pool.
Who it serves
Plenty of traders have edge and still bleed: they size up after wins, freeze after losses, and let mood run the risk budget. Adaptive scaling replaces that cycle with mechanical posture — the system gets defensive exactly when capital says so, and re-expands exactly when recovery earns it.
Modules involved
The Risk Gate Map defines the ladder, the Seven-Tier Risk Model defines deployment intensity per gate, and the Throttle Control Panel turns both into the cycle's authorized sizing.
Worked example
Equity percentile fan across 50,000 simulated paths. Violet is P10-P90, blue is P25-P75, the gold dash is the median, and the green line is live equity drawn against the envelope.
Reference
| Step | Instrument | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Read drawdown from equity peak | Gate Map | The current gate state — capital condition, not mood |
| Convert gate + evidence into permission | Throttle Control Panel | Final tier (T1–T7) and the authorized cycle pool |
| Account for open positions | Smart Open Exposure layer | Effective fresh trades and per-trade risk inside remaining capacity |
| Deploy the cycle | Cycle Command Console | Sized orders that respect every ceiling above them |
Before you go deeper
Connected inside MARS
Go deeper
Deep dive — 01
Good entries, flat account. The money did not leave through the entries.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
Everyone agrees to cut. Far fewer manage to climb back on schedule.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
Demotion is available to everything. Promotion is a privilege, and the gate does not have it.
Read the full brief →
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.
