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Simulation — Equity Percentiles

Your equity curve is one draw from a distribution.

How MARS uses this

MARS reduces the fan to its actionable rows. Each percentile band carries a defined operator read - P50 is the planning story, P90 is explicitly quarantined from expectations, and P10 is the row the tier structure must survive. Reviews quote these rows directly instead of eyeballing a chart.

How it benefits you

Percentiles become vocabulary instead of decoration. When you say 'we are tracking P60', everyone - including future you - knows exactly what that means, and sizing debates end by pointing at the P10 row rather than negotiating with optimism.

Band13 wk26 wk52 wkOperator read
P90+64.2R+131.8R+268.4Rhot path — do not extrapolate
P75+47.5R+96.3R+197.0Rstrong but ordinary
P50+31.1R+63.9R+130.6Rthe median story
P25+16.8R+35.4R+74.2Rslow — still inside the model
P10+4.3R+11.7R+27.9Rthe path sizing must survive

Cumulative R by horizon · 50,000 resampled paths

The percentile bands rendered as an operator table: cumulative R by horizon, and what each band is allowed to mean.

The key idea

Reading the bands

Where in the envelope are you?

Tracking near the median means the system is behaving as modeled. Sitting at P75/P90 with controlled drawdown may be early alpha — or favorable variance awaiting confirmation. Drifting toward P25/P10 raises the question of whether live EV is running below the modeled edge, or whether execution drag is bleeding the difference.

  • Never celebrate a band position without checking the supporting metrics behind it.
  • Band position plus drawdown band position together tell the real story — either alone can mislead.

Reading protocol

The three-step band read.

First, locate live equity against the bands. Second, locate live drawdown against its own bands — position means nothing without it. Third, classify: alpha requires above-band equity with inside-band drawdown and confirming quality metrics; anything else is variance, drag, or over-risk wearing a costume.

  • Band position is checked at review cadence, not tick-by-tick — the envelope is a ruler, not a ticker.
  • Crossing below P25 triggers an EV and execution-drag review before any rule change is considered.
  • Sustained P75+ with clean supporting metrics is the only read that justifies discussing expansion.

Reference

The equity band table — reading live equity against simulation

BandRole in review
P5 / P10Adverse floor — live equity here demands diagnosis, not panic
P25Lower normal bound — watch, verify execution and fees
Median (P50)The expected centerline of the whole distribution
P75 / P90Strong outperformance zone — confirm it's structurally earned
P95Often flattens near the target cap: paths stop at $100K completion
% lockedShare of paths that hit System Lock — the survival context for every band

Worked example

Weekly EV tagged GREEN / YELLOW / RED against expectancy thresholds, with the rolling-EV line separating persistent edge from one lucky week.

GREEN ≥ +0.25RYELLOWREDROLLING EVW1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12

Before you go deeper

Inside this module

2 pages go deeper than this one.

01

Reading the Bands

Go deeper →

02

The 3-Step Protocol

Go deeper →

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Connected — 01

Drawdown Percentiles

Open system page →

Connected — 02

Live-Trade Benchmark Comparison

Open system page →

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Deep dive — 01

Compounding geometry: how expectancy becomes alpha.

Drawdown asymmetry, recovery arithmetic, and equity acceleration — the math that converts edge into growth.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 02

P5 to P95: what the equity fan actually represents.

The bands are weekly rankings, not routes — and the P95 flattening at the top is the target cap, not a ceiling on ambition.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 03

A fixed protocol for reading percentile charts.

Five steps, fixed order: verify the ruler, locate, contextualize with survival, check persistence, respond by doctrine.

Read the full brief →

Take it further

Bands are easier to read once you have watched them widen. The Foundry re-runs the fan on inputs you control, which is the fastest way to learn what the percentiles are actually sensitive to.

Open the AlphaRail Foundry Lab ↗

Every module ships in the complete MARS package.

One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.

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