Skip to content
Montex Alpha Rail System
$497

Simulation — Monte Carlo Lab

Thousands of futures. One honest expectation.

Read this first

In practice

GREEN ≥ +0.25RYELLOWREDROLLING EVW1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12

Weekly EV tagged GREEN / YELLOW / RED against expectancy thresholds, with the rolling-EV line separating persistent edge from one lucky week.

What it simulates

The system's rules, run to exhaustion.

Using modeled branch probabilities, payoff structure, risk tiers, gate transitions, and trade throughput, the lab generates thousands of alternate histories. From that distribution come the outputs a single backtest can never provide: percentile equity paths, drawdown distributions, survival rates, and the honest range of what “following the rules” actually produces.

  • Equity dispersion: the spread between P10 and P90 outcomes under identical rules.
  • Drawdown distributions: how deep, how often, and how long underwater periods realistically run.
  • Risk-of-ruin and lock-risk: the probability the system hits its own System Lock boundary.
  • Sequence sensitivity: how much outcome variance comes purely from trade order.

How MARS uses this

MARS runs the modeled rules - branch probabilities, payoff structure, gate transitions, tier allocation - across 50,000 alternate histories and keeps the percentile bands as the reference envelope. Every review, live equity is plotted against that envelope, and the position is read together with drawdown bands, gate dwell, and tier behavior before any conclusion is drawn.

100%125%150%175%200%P90P10MEDIANLIVEW0W16W32W48

How it benefits you

You stop grading yourself by feel. Instead of 'I am behind' or 'this month feels slow', you know whether performance sits inside normal variance, is genuinely outperforming, or is drifting under the model - and whether that drift is edge decay or execution drag. It removes both panic below median and false confidence at a lucky P90.

Equity percentile fan across 50,000 simulated paths. Violet is P10-P90, blue is P25-P75, the gold dash is the median, and the green line is live equity drawn against the envelope.

Interactive — run the simulation

Instrument 03 / 03 — Monte Carlo

Your next 100 futures, in one fan.

One live equity curve is a single draw from a distribution. This simulator resamples your profile one hundred times so you can see the distribution itself — including the futures where you did nothing wrong and still drew down.

48%
1.8R
1.0R
1.00%
institutionalaccount killer
150

100 paths · seed 42 · reproducible

start−50% survival floorP95P75P50P25P5trade 150
P50 median P25–P75 core P5–P95 envelope

Risk of ruin

0.0%

LOW

Median outcome

+60%

P50 terminal equity

Adverse outcome

+25%

P5 — one path in twenty ends here

Median max drawdown

−8.3%

P95 drawdown reaches −14.3%

A LOW band is what governed sizing looks like: the median compounds while the P5 path — the future where you did everything right and still ran cold — stays above the floor. That P5 line, not the median, is what the tier structure is built from.

One hundred paths sketch the shape. The Monte Carlo Lab Lite in MARS Lite runs 1,000 with drawdown distributions; the full Lab runs 50,000 with branch-aware resampling and the tier structure your live account must respect. The 50,000-path Monte Carlo Lab ships in MARS →

Open the full Foundry Lab sandbox ↗

Computed locally in your browser. Nothing is uploaded.

R&D boundary

02

Simulation informs. It never authorizes.

The lab is a sandboxed research layer. Scenario experiments, weight changes, and sensitivity maps get tested here before any live adoption — and simulation results never expand live risk beyond what gate and throttle authority allow.

The input contract

03

The fan is only as honest as the sample behind it.

Every simulated path is resampled from recorded evidence — actual R outcomes, actual hit rates, actual branch mix, net of actual friction. That contract cuts both ways: the lab cannot be gamed with hypothetical win rates, and it inherits every blind spot of its sample window. A distribution drawn entirely from friendly months is an optimistic fan, which is why regime context is read alongside every simulation output.

From fan to authority

04

Simulation outputs become sizing law through the benchmark.

The lab does not merely produce pictures. Its drawdown distribution feeds the Dynamic 7-Tier Benchmark, which converts adverse-path depth into the tier structure the live account must respect. The chain is explicit: evidence → distribution → adverse bands → tier caps → gate ladder. A trader who sizes past what their own P10 path survives is no longer arguing with caution — they are arguing with their own recorded history.

Use cases

Where it earns its place

  • ▸Stress-testing whether a strategy survives its own variance before real capital finds out
  • ▸Setting realistic drawdown expectations so normal pain isn't mistaken for system failure
  • ▸Testing rule changes and branch-weight profiles in sandbox before promotion
  • ▸Quantifying how much recent performance is explainable by sequence luck alone

Edge cases & failure modes

Where it can mislead

  • !Garbage in: simulated distributions inherit every flaw in the modeled probabilities — sample quality upstream matters.
  • !Overfitting scenarios to recent regimes produces flattering but fragile envelopes.
  • !Treating the median path as a promise: the median is the centerline of a distribution, not a schedule.

Inside this module

2 pages go deeper than this one.

01

What It Simulates

Go deeper →

02

R&D Boundary

Go deeper →

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Connected — 01

Dynamic 7-Tier Benchmark

Open system page →

Connected — 02

Scenario Manager

Open system page →

Connected — 03

Equity Percentiles

Open system page →

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Deep dive — 01

Reading the fan: Monte Carlo without self-deception.

What the percentile bands actually promise, why P10 governs sizing, and where simulation authority ends.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 02

The lab's honest boundary: what Monte Carlo simulates — and what it can't.

Sequence risk, not edge discovery. The one boundary that keeps every simulation honest.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 03

Reading survival curves without fooling yourself.

Hit-week percentiles are successful-path-only. Miss that, and every survival read is a highlight reel.

Read the full brief →

Take it further

The Lab runs 50,000 paths on your configured profile. The Foundry lets you change the profile and watch the distribution move — same resampling doctrine, your own numbers, no workbook required.

Open the AlphaRail Foundry Lab ↗

Every module ships in the complete MARS package.

One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.

Get MARS Pro — $497Explore the Platform