Analytics Labs — Weekly Scorecard
Every week gets a grade: GREEN, YELLOW, or RED.
Layer 01 — The weekly questions
Five answers instead of one feeling.
Did Normal produce acceptable EV? Did Trend Partial? Did Trend No-Partial justify its variance? Did Overflow remain controlled? Did the blended system remain positive expectancy? That is the professional upgrade over staring at weekly P&L.
Layer 02 — From the manual
Where it sits in the production loop.
Execution evidence is logged → the CP3 Journal and Weekly Summary compress trades into weekly probabilities and branch counts → the Scorecard converts probabilities into branch EV, blended EV, week status, volatility context, and quota governance → dashboards and governance panels read the result → SDE decides whether the trend is structural.
- The Legend tab holds constants and profile weights — edited only when intentionally changing assumptions.
- Summary v3.1 rolls weeks into monthly/quarterly/annual context: average EV, weighted EV, status counts, quota flags, pace tags.
- Doctrine: if the Scorecard says RED, the operator respects the risk doctrine instead of negotiating with the result.
How MARS uses this
The Weekly Scorecard converts branch hit probabilities into EV and tags each week by threshold. The rolling line is what MARS actually trusts: single-week readings are treated as noise until the rolling window confirms direction. RED weeks trigger doctrine - reduced aggression and review - rather than negotiation.
How it benefits you
You learn to distinguish a bad week from a broken system. Variance stops triggering rule changes, and genuine expectancy decay gets caught while it is still one line on a chart instead of a hole in the account. The GREEN/YELLOW/RED language also makes weekly review fast and unambiguous.
Weekly EV tagged GREEN / YELLOW / RED against expectancy thresholds, with the rolling-EV line separating persistent edge from one lucky week.
Layer 03 — What it is not
Boundaries keep it honest.
Not the raw trade log (that's the Journal). Not the R&D sandbox (that's the EV Lab). Not a Monte Carlo simulator (that's the benchmark layer). And explicitly not a discretionary override system.
Layer 04 — The rolling window
One week is noise. The rolling line is the verdict.
Single-week EV readings swing on a handful of trades, which is why the scorecard's grade leans on the rolling window rather than the isolated bar. GREEN confirms the edge is present and persistent; YELLOW says the window is undecided and posture should hold, not expand; RED is doctrine — reduced aggression and structured review, triggered by threshold, not by mood. The colors are law precisely because they were defined before they were needed.
Layer 05 — Quota discipline
Volume is governed, because overtrading is a silent tax.
The scorecard tracks trade counts against branch quotas — including the TNP and Overflow allowances — because expectancy per trade means little if trade selection degrades under volume. Quota breaches are flagged as compliance events even in profitable weeks: a green week on excess volume is a debt to future variance, and the scorecard refuses to let it masquerade as skill.
The governing idea
Inside this module
3 pages go deeper than this one.
Connected inside MARS
This module doesn't work alone.
Go deeper
Operator briefs on this territory.
Deep dive — 01
Green, yellow, red — and why the color never acts alone.
The color is a headline, not an order. Status × stability is the actual operating read.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
The probability bridge: manual hit rates in, automated EV out.
Counted probabilities in, locked formulas out. The scorecard discovers nothing — that's its integrity.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
Quota governance: why the fat tail is mandatory.
TNP: 8 per month, hard. Overflow: 4. The profile's expectancy assumes participation the operator would rather skip.
Read the full brief →
Take it further
The Scorecard grades the week you had. The Foundry lets you ask what the grade would have been under a different branch mix, which is a question the workbook is deliberately not designed to answer.
Open the AlphaRail Foundry Lab ↗
Every module ships in the complete MARS package.
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.