Equity Percentiles · The 3-Step Protocol
How MARS uses this
The three-step protocol quotes rows, not vibes: locate equity against its bands, locate drawdown against its own, then let the pair select the interpretation. This table is step one's reference — the band values by horizon, each with the read the protocol permits.
How it benefits you
Percentiles become vocabulary instead of decoration. When you say 'we are tracking P60', everyone - including future you - knows exactly what that means, and sizing debates end by pointing at the P10 row rather than negotiating with optimism.
| Band | 13 wk | 26 wk | 52 wk | Operator read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | +64.2R | +131.8R | +268.4R | hot path — do not extrapolate |
| P75 | +47.5R | +96.3R | +197.0R | strong but ordinary |
| P50 | +31.1R | +63.9R | +130.6R | the median story |
| P25 | +16.8R | +35.4R | +74.2R | slow — still inside the model |
| P10 | +4.3R | +11.7R | +27.9R | the path sizing must survive |
Cumulative R by horizon · 50,000 resampled paths
Step one of the protocol, printed: the equity bands by horizon with their permitted reads.
Reading protocol
First, locate live equity against the bands. Second, locate live drawdown against its own bands — position means nothing without it. Third, classify: alpha requires above-band equity with inside-band drawdown and confirming quality metrics; anything else is variance, drag, or over-risk wearing a costume.
Where it lives
Within Equity Percentiles, this is one load-bearing idea — worth its own page. The parent module frames it this way: Percentile equity paths — P10, P25, median, P75, P90 — define the realistic range of outcomes under the system's own rules. Live equity is read against those bands, replacing 'I'm behind' and 'I'm ahead' feelings with a measured position.
The pairing rule
Step two exists because equity bands alone flatter: a P70 equity position achieved alongside P15 drawdown behavior is a system running hot on borrowed risk. The protocol forces the pair to be read together so the interpretation reflects how the position was purchased, not just where it sits.
Doctrine
Connected inside MARS
Go deeper
Deep dive — 01
Five steps, fixed order: verify the ruler, locate, contextualize with survival, check persistence, respond by doctrine.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
Above median bought with adverse drawdown is not the same month as above median bought cleanly.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
Sustained P75-plus with clean metrics is the only read that opens an expansion conversation.
Read the full brief →
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