7-Tier MC Benchmark — The Ruler Doctrine
A ruler, not a motivational target.
Read this first
The doctrine
01Three prohibitions.
The doctrine is short enough to memorize and strict enough to matter:
- Do not panic below median — the band between P10 and P50 is normal territory, not failure.
- Do not worship a lucky P90 month — outperformance is usually variance wearing a costume.
- Do not chase the target blindly — the benchmark measures behavior; it doesn't demand it.
Why a ruler
02Measurement, not motivation.
A target changes behavior toward the target; a ruler measures behavior against expectation. The 50,000-path envelope — 52 weeks, gate-aware 7-tier allocation, 16 trades per week — defines what following the rules actually produces, so live results can be judged against what the rules promise rather than what the trader hoped.
In practice
03Bands before feelings.
Every live review starts by locating the current equity path, drawdown, gate dwell, and tier usage inside the simulated bands. Only after location comes interpretation — and that interpretation runs through the two questions on the companion page.
Recalibration rhythm
04The ruler is re-marked when the evidence changes.
The benchmark is regenerated on cadence and after any material system change — new branch weights, a revised stop policy, a meaningful evidence-window shift. Comparing live results to a stale ruler quietly converts drift into false alarm or false comfort; the regeneration log records which ruler graded which weeks.
How MARS uses this
A ruler needs marked gradations, and this table is the marking. Each percentile row carries a defined operator read — the doctrine that live performance is compared against bands, not wished against targets, starts by giving every band a name and a permitted meaning.
| Band | 13 wk | 26 wk | 52 wk | Operator read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | +64.2R | +131.8R | +268.4R | hot path — do not extrapolate |
| P75 | +47.5R | +96.3R | +197.0R | strong but ordinary |
| P50 | +31.1R | +63.9R | +130.6R | the median story |
| P25 | +16.8R | +35.4R | +74.2R | slow — still inside the model |
| P10 | +4.3R | +11.7R | +27.9R | the path sizing must survive |
Cumulative R by horizon · 50,000 resampled paths
How it benefits you
Percentiles become vocabulary instead of decoration. When you say 'we are tracking P60', everyone - including future you - knows exactly what that means, and sizing debates end by pointing at the P10 row rather than negotiating with optimism.
The ruler, printed: each band with its horizon values and the one interpretation it is allowed to carry.
Connected inside MARS
This module doesn't work alone.
Go deeper
Operator briefs on this territory.
Deep dive — 01
Why the benchmark moves with your tier path.
Static simulations model a trader the system forbids. The dynamic benchmark models the governed one.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
The same number, read two ways — and only one of them is legal.
Eight prohibitions, all of them describing a moment when a ruler becomes a target.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
A benchmark measuring a system you no longer run.
Monthly bands, quarterly survival, event-driven rebuilds — and a regeneration log saying which ruler graded which weeks.
Read the full brief →
Every module ships in the complete MARS package.
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.