Variant Attribution · Failure Modes
How MARS uses this
The Weekly Scorecard converts branch hit probabilities into EV and tags each week by threshold. The rolling line is what MARS actually trusts: single-week readings are treated as noise until the rolling window confirms direction. RED weeks trigger doctrine - reduced aggression and review - rather than negotiation.
How it benefits you
You learn to distinguish a bad week from a broken system. Variance stops triggering rule changes, and genuine expectancy decay gets caught while it is still one line on a chart instead of a hole in the account. The GREEN/YELLOW/RED language also makes weekly review fast and unambiguous.
Weekly EV tagged GREEN / YELLOW / RED against expectancy thresholds, with the rolling-EV line separating persistent edge from one lucky week.
The key idea
Failure modes
Using Time-Aggressive because the setup 'feels strong' replaces evidence with feeling. Turning Normal into a trend trade after entry is identity drift. Overusing Time-Conservative in clean trends under-monetizes the right tail. TNP aggression must be earned through quota, EV, SDE, gate, and ATR evidence — never through emotional acceleration.
Where it lives
Pulled from the Variant Attribution page so it can be linked, cited, and studied on its own. In the module's words: The variant layer compares Standard logic against Time/Exposure Conservative and Aggressive management variants inside each branch. Attribution shows where realized R came from; checkpoint hit rates explain why; the seven-lens matrix decides which variant is even permitted.
Rail enforcement
03Managing a trade outside its declared variant — improvising a partial on a No-Partial trade, say — is recorded as a rail departure regardless of outcome. Profitable breaches are the dangerous ones: unlogged, they quietly teach that the matrix is advisory. The attribution module keeps score so the lesson never takes root.
Before you go deeper
Connected inside MARS
Go deeper
Deep dive — 01
The improvised partial that worked is not a data point. It is a habit forming.
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Deep dive — 02
The label is set at entry. Changing the management later rewrites history, not the trade.
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Deep dive — 03
One failure mode produces losses you notice. The other produces gains you never see.
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