Coefficient Calibration · Feedback Loop

Coefficient decisions become evidence.

Log cadence

Every decision

Coefficient sources

Static · VIE · Override

Comparison verdicts

Downstream reviewers

How MARS uses this

Every governing metric is tracked as a rolling series with stability bands and a z-score against its own history. Readings inside the band are treated as variance and left alone; sustained drift toward the outer bands raises a structural flag that outranks the P&L column.

How it benefits you

You stop repairing noise and stop ignoring decay. A losing week inside the band changes nothing - which protects working rules from panic edits - while genuine deterioration is caught as a line on a chart weeks before it becomes a hole in the account.

A rolling metric leaving its normal band: inside ±1σ is weather; a sustained walk toward −2σ is climate - and climate gets flagged.

The honesty field

Final Coefficient Used is entered by hand, on purpose.

The Coefficient_Audit_Log's decisive field is manual: the coefficient actually deployed, which can match the static lookup, match the VIE recommendation, or record a discretionary override. The manual entry is the design, not a gap — the log captures what the trader did, not what the workbook suggested, and the difference between those two numbers is exactly the behavior the review needs to see. An override that goes unlogged is a decision the system can never learn from.

The comparison record

Every decision carries its context into the log.

Alongside the final coefficient, the audit trail records the selected symbol, trigger timeframe, authority mode and final authority timeframe, branch, static lookup coefficient and bucket, intelligence tier, base and authority-adjusted VIE coefficients, the delta between static and VIE, the source decision, and confidence. The point of that width is reconstruction: months later, the review can see not just which coefficient ran, but which alternatives were on the table and what the evidence said at the moment of choice.

The reviewers

Three consumers read the log, asking different questions.

The loop closes in review, and each reviewer interrogates the same fields differently:

CP3 Journal — did the trade's management match its logged branch and coefficient, and was adherence clean?
MAE/MFE Lab — did stop-outs at this coefficient band die to structure or to noise, and what did the envelope cost in capture?
SDE — is coefficient behavior improving or damaging trend-branch EV across weeks, structurally rather than anecdotally?

Evidence routing

Stop-out autopsies feed the next calibration.

Every stopped trade records whether the exit was structural (thesis failed) or noise (envelope too tight), and the noise share per coefficient band flows back into calibration review. The loop means coefficients are not set-and-forgotten opinions — they are parameters under permanent audit by the trades they governed.

Further illustration

MARS anchors stops, break-even triggers, and distance expectations to ATR on the designated authority timeframe. The same coefficient produces wide stops in violent conditions and tight ones in quiet conditions, keeping the probability of a noise stop-out roughly constant across regimes.

Price inside its volatility envelope. The stop is quoted in ATR, and break-even is earned at a volatility-defined distance - not felt.

Reference

What the audit log preserves per decision

Field group	Contents	Why it is logged
Selection	Symbol · trigger TF · authority mode · final authority TF · branch	Reproduces the exact decision context
Static side	Lookup coefficient · volatility bucket	The durable baseline that was on the table
Intelligence side	Tier · base VIE · authority-adjusted VIE · delta vs static	What live evidence recommended, and by how much
Decision	Final coefficient used · source · confidence · reason	What actually ran, and on whose authority
Outcome linkage	Trade capture reference · MAE/MFE · exit type	Lets stop-out autopsies grade the band

Doctrine

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Connected — 01

Coefficient Calibration (full page)

Open system page →

Connected — 02

Why Not Eyeballing

Open system page →

Connected — 03

The 1.5 → Wide Spectrum

Open system page →

Connected — 04

MAE/MFE Execution Efficiency Lab

Open system page →

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Deep dive — 01

Raw stop-out rate cannot tell you whether the envelope was too tight. The classification can.

Structural or noise. Two words per stopped trade, and without them the loop has no input at all.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 02

The audit loop: how coefficient choices get graded and the ladder stays true.

Select → log → outcome → review → recalibrate. The loop that keeps a fixed ladder honest in a moving market.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 03

What a promoted change does to the evidence base it re-enters.

A promoted change doesn't end the loop. It resets what every subsequent measurement is measuring.

Read the full brief →

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