Coefficient Calibration · Feedback Loop
How MARS uses this
MARS anchors stops, break-even triggers, and distance expectations to ATR on the designated authority timeframe. The same coefficient produces wide stops in violent conditions and tight ones in quiet conditions, keeping the probability of a noise stop-out roughly constant across regimes.
How it benefits you
Fixed-pip distances stop punishing you for the market changing size. Stops survive ordinary noise, break-even moves stop converting winners into scratches, and every distance decision is defensible in volatility terms instead of round numbers and feel.
Price inside its volatility envelope. The stop is quoted in ATR, and break-even is earned at a volatility-defined distance - not felt.
The feedback loop
Coefficient, volatility zone, ATR ratio, and stop distance get logged into trade capture and CP3. The SDE and MAE/MFE Lab can later diagnose whether coefficient behavior is improving or damaging trend-branch EV — closing the loop from decision to accountability.
Where it lives
Within Coefficient Calibration, this is one load-bearing idea — worth its own page. The parent module frames it this way: A poor ATR coefficient can choke a valid trend or allow unnecessary giveback. Calibration reads volatility in relation to trigger timeframe, authority timeframe, asset class, session, and engine mode — consistent and auditable, instead of subjective.
Evidence routing
Every stopped trade records whether the exit was structural (thesis failed) or noise (envelope too tight), and the noise share per coefficient band flows back into calibration review. The loop means coefficients are not set-and-forgotten opinions — they are parameters under permanent audit by the trades they governed.
Further illustration
Every governing metric is tracked as a rolling series with stability bands and a z-score against its own history. Readings inside the band are treated as variance and left alone; sustained drift toward the outer bands raises a structural flag that outranks the P&L column.
A rolling metric leaving its normal band: inside ±1σ is weather; a sustained walk toward −2σ is climate - and climate gets flagged.
Doctrine
Connected inside MARS
Go deeper
Deep dive — 01
Structural or noise. Two words per stopped trade, and without them the loop has no input at all.
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Deep dive — 02
Select → log → outcome → review → recalibrate. The loop that keeps a fixed ladder honest in a moving market.
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Deep dive — 03
A promoted change doesn't end the loop. It resets what every subsequent measurement is measuring.
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