Monte Carlo Lab — What It Simulates
The system's rules, run to exhaustion.
Layer 01 — The outputs
What a distribution shows that one curve can't.
From thousands of simulated histories come the honest ranges:
- Equity dispersion: the spread between P10 and P90 outcomes under identical rules.
- Drawdown distributions: how deep, how often, and how long underwater periods realistically run.
- Risk-of-ruin and lock-risk: the probability the system hits its own System Lock boundary.
- Sequence sensitivity: how much outcome variance comes purely from trade order.
Layer 02 — The premise
One live curve is one draw.
A single live equity curve is one draw from a distribution — and traders who only see one draw misjudge everything: they mistake normal drawdown for failure, sequence luck for skill, and a P90 stretch for the new baseline. The lab exists to show the whole distribution before live capital samples it.
How MARS uses this
This page's subject is the simulation input contract itself — the modeled probabilities, payoff structure, tier allocation, and throughput that get run to exhaustion. The grid shows what that contract makes possible: the same evidence base resampled under alternative rule-sets, side by side, before any of them touches the live account.
How it benefits you
System changes stop being vibes-based. The tempting tweak that costs 0.07R of expectancy for a modest drawdown saving gets rejected by arithmetic before it silently taxes six months of trading - and promising candidates carry their evidence with them into review.
BASELINE
LIVEcurrent governing profile
TIGHTER STOPS
REJECTEDEV cost exceeds drawdown saving
TNP WEIGHT +10
SANDBOXedge up, adverse tail deepens
FEE MODEL B
CANDIDATEfriction saving survives resampling
The rule-set is the experiment: identical evidence resampled under alternative contracts, judged in one grid.
Layer 03 — Model inputs
Garbage in still applies.
Simulated distributions inherit every flaw in the modeled probabilities — branch probabilities, payoff structure, and throughput assumptions all come from live evidence quality upstream. Sample quality gates simulation trust, always.
Layer 04 — Sample hygiene
The window is chosen, and the choice is recorded.
Which trades feed the resampler is itself a governed decision: window length, branch inclusion, and any excluded anomalies are logged alongside every run. Two simulations that disagree usually differ in their windows, not their math — recording the sample contract makes those disagreements diagnosable instead of mysterious.
The governing idea
Connected inside MARS
This module doesn't work alone.
Go deeper
Operator briefs on this territory.
Deep dive — 01
The lab's honest boundary: what Monte Carlo simulates — and what it can't.
Sequence risk, not edge discovery. The one boundary that keeps every simulation honest.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
Before the engine runs, the simulation must be declared.
Twelve zones, two gates, one verdict. The Lab refuses to simulate an undeclared plan.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
The one place the Lab refuses to believe you.
Exit mechanics cannot manufacture expectancy above your measured edge. One clamp, and the Lab stops flattering.
Read the full brief →
Every module ships in the complete MARS package.
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.