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Montex Alpha Rail System
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Scenario Manager · Promotion Workflow

From idea to production, with a paper trail.

How MARS uses this

Promotion is earned in stages, and the final stage is this picture: the candidate's modeled envelope with live shadow-tracking drawn inside it. A change that behaved in resampling must also behave in forward observation before it touches production rules — the overlay is the last gate on the paper trail.

How it benefits you

You stop grading months by feel. A flat quarter inside the band stops causing panic edits, a hot streak at P85 stops justifying size increases, and genuine model breaks get caught by classification instead of by pain.

ABOVE MEDIAN · NORMALTRACKING P60live equity (green) read against the simulated envelope — never in isolation

The final promotion gate: forward-observed performance tracked inside the candidate's own modeled envelope.

Promotion workflow

From idea to production, with a paper trail.

A candidate change follows a fixed path: define the scenario contract with expected behavior, run it against evidence in the sandbox, compare against the Standard baseline over a persistence window, document the verdict, and only then promote deliberately. Every step leaves a record — because 'I tried it and it felt better' is exactly the process MARS exists to replace.

  • Persistence windows span multiple weeks and months; one flattering sample never promotes anything.
  • Rejected scenarios stay in the library with their verdicts — negative knowledge is still knowledge.
  • Promotion updates the Legend weights or rules explicitly, so production changes are visible diffs, not silent drift.

Where it lives

Inside Scenario Manager.

Within Scenario Manager, this is one load-bearing idea — worth its own page. The parent module frames it this way: Branch-weight changes, management variants, filter tweaks, aggression profiles — every candidate change becomes a controlled scenario with explicit expected behavior, run in the sandbox and compared before anything is promoted to production.

The rollback clause

Every promotion ships with its own undo condition.

A change graduates with a pre-written rollback trigger: the specific live evidence that would prove the scenario wrong, and the exact prior state to restore. Deciding the exit before the entry is the same doctrine trades follow — and it turns a failed promotion from a crisis into a scheduled, unemotional reversal.

Doctrine

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Connected — 01

Scenario Manager (full page)

Open system page →

Connected — 02

Scenario Discipline

Open system page →

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Deep dive — 01

Sandbox → persistence window → documented verdict → promotion.

Four gates between a promising idea and the production rail — and the order is the protection.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 02

Every promotion ships with the condition that would undo it.

Decide the exit before the entry — the rule trades follow, applied to the system itself.

Read the full brief →

Deep dive — 03

Resampled evidence and forward evidence are not the same evidence.

Backward-looking evidence can be overfitted. Evidence generated after the prediction cannot.

Read the full brief →

Every module ships in the complete MARS package.

One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.

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