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MARS Overview · The Core Idea

Discretionary execution. Quantitative governance.

How MARS uses this

MARS never trusts a single blended figure. Weekly branch probabilities produce a separate EV per branch, weighted by the live profile (45 / 33.75 / 11.25 / 10 by default) into the blend. Reviews read the decomposition first: which branch produced the edge, which one leaked it, and whether the weights still match the evidence.

How it benefits you

You stop repairing the wrong thing. When results dip, the decomposition shows whether the whole system weakened or one branch is dragging - so you fix a branch instead of overhauling a working system, and you spot a single strong branch masking weakness everywhere else.

+0.0R+0.2R+0.4R+0.6R+0.38RNORMALweight 45%+0.51RTREND PARTIALweight 33.75%+0.64RTREND NO-PARTIALweight 11.25%+0.22ROVERFLOWweight 10%BRANCH EV — ILLUSTRATIVE WEEK · BLENDED EV = Σ (weight × branch EV)

Branch-level EV decomposition with blend weights. The blended number alone would hide exactly this picture.

The core idea

Discretionary execution. Quantitative governance.

A trader may still make discretionary execution decisions — but capital deployment must never be discretionary chaos. MARS measures whether trades are selected, sized, managed, logged, and interpreted correctly across daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and structural horizons.

  • Every trade routes through gate state, throttle authority, and open-exposure logic before fresh risk deploys.
  • Every week is graded by expectancy — GREEN / YELLOW / RED — not by how the P&L felt.
  • Every month is classified by the Regime Engine and diagnosed by the Structural Diagnostic Engine.
  • Live performance is benchmarked against a 50,000-path Monte Carlo envelope — the ruler, not a fantasy target.

Where it lives

Inside MARS Overview.

This page expands one card of the MARS Overview page into its own reference. For orientation, the module's own framing: MARS is a professional-grade discretionary-quant trading framework. It is not a journal, not a dashboard, not a risk calculator — it is an integrated operating system that routes every trade, every risk decision, every branch, and every review cycle through structured quantitative governance.

What each side cannot do

The pairing exists because each half fails alone.

Pure discretion fails at honesty — nobody audits themselves under pressure. Pure automation fails at reading live structure — markets present context no backtest enumerated. The core idea is not a compromise between the two but a division along their actual failure lines: judgment where judgment wins, arithmetic where arithmetic does.

Doctrine

AUTHORITY FLOWS DOWN ▼TRADING PLAN & HARD RULESdoctrineGATE / DRAWDOWN STATEcapital authorityTHROTTLE CONTROL PANELdeployment authorityCYCLE COMMAND CONSOLEevidence & exposureVOLATILITY LAYER — VIP + VDMcoefficient supportCP3 & WEEKLY SCORECARDexpectancy evidenceSDE & REGIME ENGINEstructural interpretationR&D — EV LAB / MC TOOLSsandboxed

Reference

Every decision in MARS is routed through this hierarchy in order. The plan defines doctrine; gate state defines capital posture; the throttle converts posture into deployment numbers; evidence and diagnostics inform from below; R&D stays sandboxed at the bottom until validated. When layers disagree, the higher layer wins - always.

The MARS authority stack. Authority flows down; evidence flows up; nothing lower may override anything above it.

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Every module ships in the complete MARS package.

One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.