The MARS Story · The Five Metrics
Five numbers that grade the whole machine.
Layer 01 — The hierarchy
From expectancy to acceleration.
Each metric answers one question about the machine:
- Expected Value (EV) — is there edge, and is it persisting?
- Drawdown (DD) — what is the capital-state cost of running the system?
- Risk-Adjusted Profit Factor (RAPF) — is the profit quality real after risk?
- Risk-Adjusted Efficiency Ratio (RAER) — is risk being converted to return efficiently?
- Equity Acceleration (ACCEL) — is compounding gaining or losing momentum?
Layer 02 — Why five
One number always lies eventually.
Any single metric can look healthy while the machine deteriorates — profit with expanding drawdown, growth with slowing acceleration, profit factor with poor efficiency. Five metrics diagnosed together, through the SDE’s structural pipelines, are what give MARS x-ray vision instead of a scoreboard.
How MARS uses this
MARS runs the modeled rules - branch probabilities, payoff structure, gate transitions, tier allocation - across 50,000 alternate histories and keeps the percentile bands as the reference envelope. Every review, live equity is plotted against that envelope, and the position is read together with drawdown bands, gate dwell, and tier behavior before any conclusion is drawn.
How it benefits you
You stop grading yourself by feel. Instead of 'I am behind' or 'this month feels slow', you know whether performance sits inside normal variance, is genuinely outperforming, or is drifting under the model - and whether that drift is edge decay or execution drag. It removes both panic below median and false confidence at a lucky P90.
Equity percentile fan across 50,000 simulated paths. Violet is P10-P90, blue is P25-P75, the gold dash is the median, and the green line is live equity drawn against the envelope.
Layer 03 — Why five, not one
Each metric exists to catch the others lying.
Expectancy without drawdown context rewards recklessness; drawdown without efficiency context rewards timidity; all of them without acceleration context miss decay. The five-metric panel is a mutual-audit design — each number was chosen for what it prevents the others from hiding, not for what it celebrates on its own.
The governing idea
Reference
The MARS operating loop: execute, capture, score, gate, throttle, deploy - every cycle feeding evidence into the next.
Connected inside MARS
This module doesn't work alone.
Go deeper
Operator briefs on this territory.
Deep dive — 01
Five metrics chosen for what they prevent each other from hiding.
The mutual-audit principle: what each of the five metrics stops the other four from concealing.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 02
Any single metric can look healthy while the machine deteriorates.
For each metric, the concrete deterioration it fails to detect — the case for reading five.
Read the full brief →
Deep dive — 03
It is a hierarchy, which means the order carries meaning.
What the ordering of the five-metric hierarchy decides — and how conflicts between metrics resolve.
Read the full brief →
Every module ships in the complete MARS package.
One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.