Carryover trades: the accounting that keeps cycles honest.

The seam problem

Every cycle boundary is a seam, and seams are where risk leaks.

The 4-trade concurrent cycle gives deployment a clean rhythm: authorize a pool, deploy into it, close the cycle, decide again. The rhythm has one structural weakness — trades are not obligated to finish when the cycle does. A trend trade opened on Tuesday may still be running when the next cycle's authorization is priced on Thursday. Without explicit accounting, that surviving position is invisible to the new cycle's arithmetic: the fresh pool gets sized as if the account were flat, and the account ends up carrying the old risk plus the new pool. Do that across a few boundaries in a trending week and actual exposure can quietly grow far beyond anything any single cycle ever authorized. Carryover accounting closes the seam by making open risk a first-class input to every fresh authorization.

The arithmetic

Remaining capacity is the pool minus the survivors.

The chain runs in a fixed order, verbatim from the panel. Remaining Pool Capacity % is MAX(0, Authorized Cycle Pool % − Active Open Risk %) — the floor at zero matters, because an inherited book can already exceed the new, possibly compressed pool, in which case fresh capacity is nothing rather than negative. Exposure Pressure — Active Open Risk % ÷ Authorized Cycle Pool % — expresses how much of the new cycle's budget the survivors already consume. From remaining capacity, the panel derives Full Throughput PT Risk % (capacity ÷ max fresh trades per cycle), tests whether that per-trade figure clears the minimum viable threshold, and if not, Smart Capacity reduces the suggested fresh trade count instead — deploying fewer trades at meaningful size rather than four at dust size. Total Active Risk After New Trades then confirms the ceiling holds: open risk plus effective fresh deployment must respect the authorized pool.

What counts as open risk

Risk is measured at the stop, and floating profit refills nothing.

Two rules keep the inputs honest. First, a carryover trade's contribution is its current risk-at-stop — what the position would lose from here if its stop were hit — not its original risk at entry. A survivor whose stop has been moved to breakeven contributes at or near zero and barely dents fresh capacity; a survivor still carrying its full initial stop contributes its full weight. This is why disciplined stop management directly purchases deployment room. Second, floating profit is context, never capacity: an open winner sitting on unrealized gain does not refill the pool, because unrealized gain can evaporate in one adverse session while the risk it 'offset' cannot. The pool is denominated in what can be lost, and only realized outcomes change what can be lost.

The update discipline

Carryover inputs are updated every cycle, not when convenient.

The arithmetic is only as honest as its inputs, and the inputs decay. Stops move, partials come off, positions close between boundaries — each event changes Active Open Risk %, and the panel doesn't watch the broker; the operator carries the number to the panel. The discipline is therefore procedural: before any fresh cycle is priced, the open book is re-counted, position by position, at current stops. The edge cases codified on the parent page exist because each one was learned: carryover trades nobody re-counted are how risk budgets die. An operator who re-counts every boundary spends ninety seconds per cycle; an operator who doesn't will eventually price a fresh pool against a stale book, and the gap between recorded and real exposure is precisely where uncontrolled losses live.

• Re-count the open book at current stops before every fresh authorization — no exceptions for 'nothing changed.'
• Breakeven and partialed positions must be re-measured, not remembered.
• If the re-count reveals open risk above the new pool: fresh capacity is zero, and that's the system working.

The key idea

The cycle rhythm survives only because the seams are audited.

Carryover accounting is unglamorous — a subtraction, a floor at zero, a re-count ritual. But it's the mechanism that lets the cycle abstraction touch reality without lying. Trades overflow their cycles; the accounting makes the overflow visible, priced, and binding on the next authorization. Every governed system has a version of this truth: the elegant rhythm on the surface is only as sound as the boring reconciliation underneath it.