Question one
Is live MARS performance inside the benchmark envelope?
This is a location question, and it deliberately replaces the questions traders actually ask — 'am I doing well?', 'am I behind?' — with one that has a measurable answer. The envelope is the P5-to-P95 span of governed simulated outcomes for equity, return, and drawdown at your current point in the year. Inside it, the system is behaving as modeled, whether that feels good or not: a month at P35 is below median and completely normal, because 35% of governed futures with your exact edge look like that or worse. The question's power is what it refuses to do — it refuses to treat below-median as failure or above-median as skill. Location first; judgment only if location warrants it.
