Skip to content

MAE/MFE Lab — Branch-Aware Judgment

Four branches. Four different good.

The key idea

The four standards

What healthy looks like, per branch.

Each branch has a distinct excursion signature — and a distinct failure mode the lab watches for:

  • Normal should show stable excursions and high capture — drift in either is an execution warning.
  • Trend Partial with good MFE but poor capture means the trail is leaking the runner.
  • Trend No-Partial with low MFE and high MAE isn't earning its variance.
  • Overflow with high fee drag or swap damage has become hidden recovery trading.

Why it matters

02

Generic standards punish the wrong branch.

Judged by Normal's standard, Trend No-Partial always looks reckless — its variance profile is structurally wider. Judged by TNP's standard, Normal's small leaks look acceptable. Branch-aware judgment is what keeps execution review from optimizing one branch into dysfunction while excusing another.

Feeding the repair

Diagnosis routes to the What-If engine.

Once a branch-specific weakness is named — trail leakage, chased entries, friction damage — the Repair Engine's driver diagnostics and What-If scenarios estimate which single fix moves net EV most for that branch.

No universal grade

A capture ratio is only meaningful against its branch's contract.

Trend No-Partial monetizing 45% of offered excursion may be excellent; Normal branch at 45% may be a management leak. The lab grades every trade against its own branch's expected profile, because the four branches make four different promises — and judging them on one curve punishes exactly the behavior each was designed for.

In practice

EXECUTEclearance + entryCAPTUREevidence + journalSCOREweekly EV gradeGATEcapital stateTHROTTLEdeployment mathDEPLOYgoverned riskEVIDENCEevery cycle feeds the next

The MARS operating loop: execute, capture, score, gate, throttle, deploy - every cycle feeding evidence into the next.

Connected inside MARS

This module doesn't work alone.

Go deeper

Operator briefs on this territory.

Every module ships in the complete MARS package.

One price. Eleven workbooks, three TradingView indicators, and the full manual library — $497.